The investment industry is captivated by scale and intricacy. But the reason we don’t default to sprawling models isn’t that they’re difficult to build. It’s that they often violate the most fundamental rule of nature, statistics, and markets: Regression to the Mean."

With AI stocks dominating headlines and valuations pushing into historic extremes, investors are asking the same question: Is the AI boom a bubble on the verge of bursting—or a once-in-a-generation opportunity? History suggests it’s both.

For decades, investors have debated whether value beats growth, small caps beat large caps, or international markets beat the US. But beneath those shifting narratives lies something far more reliable—a dynamic that explains more about future returns than any factor or style box. At Flextion, we call it the Earnings Growth Triangle, and it’s one of the most consistently mispriced forces in markets.

For decades, investors have debated whether value beats growth, small caps beat large caps, or international markets beat the US. But beneath those shifting narratives lies something far more reliable—a dynamic that explains more about future returns than any factor or style box. At Flextion, we call it the Earnings Growth Triangle, and it’s one of the most consistently mispriced forces in markets.

For the past three years, the market has rewarded one simple idea: buy the same seven companies everyone else owns. Through cap-weighted index funds, those names now make up more than 30% of the S&P 500, an unprecedented concentration for what’s supposed to be a diversified benchmark. It’s been an easy trade to love: great brands, strong balance sheets, dominant technology stories. But when diversification starts to look like dependence, the risk isn’t in what you’re missing, it’s in what you’re holding too much of.

The International Energy Agency is forecasting the largest oil supply surplus on record. Hedge funds are record short. Energy ETF assets have collapsed 30% in a year. And yet, despite all that, global crude inventories have fallen by 10 million barrels this year. If we’re supposedly drowning in oil, why is supply tightening? The math doesn’t work. When consensus gets this confident and this wrong, that’s where opportunity hides.

In every cycle, markets develop blind spots. The louder the hype around a handful of winners, the more investors start mistaking noise for insight. Today, the US mega caps have become the market’s gravitational field—pulling capital, headlines, and attention into a narrow corner of the global opportunity set. But here’s the twist the narrative ignores: The most compelling sources of outperformance right now are happening outside the spotlight—quietly, consistently, and almost entirely unnoticed. This isn’t an opinion. It’s math.

In today’s social media-fueled, tech-obsessed world, attention is currency. The same stories get amplified over and over, often about a handful of mega-cap names driving US stock market headlines. But when the spotlight gets too bright in one corner, it tends to leave the rest of the stage in the dark.

Investors today have more tools, data, and advice than ever before—yet most still struggle to keep up with market returns. The problem isn’t a lack of information; it’s the challenge of making decisions at the right time. That’s why we’ve created a domain-trained AI agent that helps close this “behavior gap” once and for all.

When optimism is high and growth appears inevitable, investors are more likely to fall into what’s known as a growth trap—a scenario where expectations are so elevated that even great companies underdeliver relative to their share price. These traps can last years, even decades.